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    Sales Forecasting Spring 2009, Part 1

    Madison Avenue stores are pumping the air-conditioning but the heat is still on to move merchandise. So how are sales going to fall out this season? Will stores go straight to 75% off or have luxury vendors flexed their muscles enough to keep prices in check?

    Sure, we have our own opinions but first we thought we would extend the question to our peers. Here’s what they had so say:

    Lauren Dimet Waters
    Second City Style
    I think we are going to see some amazing sales again this spring. Will it be like Christmas? No. But it will be close. Many stores are already offering 40% off spring merch which usually goes on sale Memorial Day … a clear sign stores are hurting. I think by Memorial Day we will see giant clearances.

    While I think many stores (especially department stores) did a better job of controlling merchandise, I still think they are going to find themselves with a lot of inventory. Who are really going to be hurt? The high-end luxury retailers, the free standing stores like YSL and Micheal Kors.

    Women are still going to want some new stuff, but they are going to wait for killer prices before they shop.

    Tina Craig
    Bag Snob
    Sales are definitely earlier this year. In fact, this weekend I was asked to a private pre-shop event for spring 55% off at Neiman Marcus.

    Cheryl Maday
    Cheryl Shops
    I don’t think the sales will be as quick and as steeply discounted as fall, since the retailers have had a few months to tailor their buys and their stock levels to the current economic climate–the retailers are much better prepared this season.

    That said, no one is shopping at the moment, except during Friends & Family and other such events that the stores have been using to test the waters. (And I don’t blame them–once you’ve shopped at 80% off, it’s hard to go back to full price.) I have a feeling we’ll be seeing events like this for another few weeks, and once Mother’s Day comes and goes, the stores will go to 40% off. It’s just a matter of who marks down first; since they have nothing to lose (i.e. their vendors are already ticked off because of last fall). My money is on Saks.

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    Europen Children’s Sample Sale

    Magia, a showroom that sells high-end European children’s clothing bands –like Il Gufo, Armani Junior, Simonetta and Cavalli– is hosting its semi-annual sample sale.

    The sale runs from Monday, April 27th to Friday, May 1st and will contain merchandise from the current summer 2009 collection and the upcoming winter 2009 collection. Sizes range from infant to 16 years. Prices usually start at 20% off wholesale but go down to 50% off wholesale on the last day.

    If you can’t make it to the showroom this week Magia usually opens to the public again next month when other children’s showrooms host their sales. Go now for the best picks. Wait for later for the best prices. Details below:

    Magia Sample Sale
    Monday, April 27th to Friday, May 1st
    131 West 33rd Street, suite 810
    9:30am to 4:30pm
    CASH ONLY

    Clarification: No European children will be sold at the sale.

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    Maurice Villency Closing

    Maurice Villency is closing their Manhattan showroom and hosting a sale with up to 70% off. We are going to write this store closing off as another sign that pretension without substance is simply out of style in the new economy.

    Maurice Villency specialized –or prayed –on those without style. Customers payed through the nose for mediocre quality furnishings and then later had to wait as if the company were building a custom made Temple of Versailles. No thank you.

    We say good-bye and good riddance. Maybe their stores are doing better in states where people don’t know better, like– Wisconsin.

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    eLuxury Super 80% Off Sale

    eLuxury just launched a super discount where all sale items are an additional 40% off. We found a $1700 Roberto Cavalli dress reduced to just $300. Do that math– that’s more than 80% off! A Proenza Schouler georgette rust-print top was $725 and now $110. A $2300 Versace dress is $400. You get the picture.

    Granted, some of this inventory is left over from fall, but think about it…fall is less than six months away!

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    D&G’s Dahlia Sold Out

    Don’t tell me you’re really surprised?

    The deep red shade lipstick premiered on Dolce & Gabbana’s Fall/Winter 2010 runway and now Dahlia has garnered a wait list a mile long. Get this, the lipstick doesn’t even hit the shelves of Saks until tomorrow.

    The Dolce & Gabbana make-up line launches exclusively in the United States at Saks Fifth Avenue– in New York City– and will reach Saks Fifth Avenue Beverly Hills and Saks.com by mid-May. However, if you want Dahlia you might have to wait longer.

    If only, Stefano and Domenico could get the spelling of my name right. It’s D-E-L-I-L-A-H!

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