Yesterday we asked a few of our blogging peers to forecast how the spring 2009 sales season is going to break. Looking back into our archives, we thought we would list last year’s action.
Carolina Herrera: May 17, 50% off
Christian Louboutin: June 1, 40% off
Chloe, June 2, 50% off
Dior: Presale May 13, official sale May 17, 40% off
Gucci: Presale May 20, official sale June 3rd, 30% off
Gucci.com, Presale May 28, official sale June 2, 30%
Jil Sander: May 27, 40% off
Jimmy Choo: Presale May 27, official sale June 1, 30% off
Luca Luca, May 22, 20-50% off
Prada: Presale May 18, official sale June 1, 50% off
Michael Kors: May 20, 50% off
Missoni: May 19, 30% off
Nordstrom: May 15, 40% off
Sigerson Morrison: May 26, 30% off

Last year, by mid-May, the department stores were all discounting pretty nicely. Here’s the breakdown:
Bloomingdales: May 22, 40% off with coupons for an extra 20%.
Bergdorf: F5 was 30% off and the rest of the store went down to 30% on May 29
Barneys: May 22, 40% off
Neiman Marcus: May 6th, 30% off
Saks: May 26, 30% off

Lila’s Take: I expect the sales to start the second week of May, which is a bit earlier than last year. I think many stores will go straight to 40% but others will try 30% and push to 40% and 50% if merchandise isn’t moving.

We are also hearing that presales are going to run a bit differently this season. in many boutiques, customers are going to be invited to take their merchandise home during the presale period. Usually presale items cannot be picked up or sent until the sale offically begins.

My crystal ball says that Saks will go straight to 40% but not blow merchandise out at 70% unless the store remains dead.

Keep a watchful eye on Barneys. They are experiencing a bit of a cash crunch and may discount fast and furious to pay for the fall collection.

In the end, the luxury brands get ticked off if their merchandise gets reduced too much too quickly, but maybe they should remember that without these stores there’s no outlet for their brands.

What do you think?

Madison Avenue stores are pumping the air-conditioning but the heat is still on to move merchandise. So how are sales going to fall out this season? Will stores go straight to 75% off or have luxury vendors flexed their muscles enough to keep prices in check?

Sure, we have our own opinions but first we thought we would extend the question to our peers. Here’s what they had so say:

Lauren Dimet Waters
Second City Style
I think we are going to see some amazing sales again this spring. Will it be like Christmas? No. But it will be close. Many stores are already offering 40% off spring merch which usually goes on sale Memorial Day … a clear sign stores are hurting. I think by Memorial Day we will see giant clearances.

While I think many stores (especially department stores) did a better job of controlling merchandise, I still think they are going to find themselves with a lot of inventory. Who are really going to be hurt? The high-end luxury retailers, the free standing stores like YSL and Micheal Kors.

Women are still going to want some new stuff, but they are going to wait for killer prices before they shop.

Tina Craig
Bag Snob
Sales are definitely earlier this year. In fact, this weekend I was asked to a private pre-shop event for spring 55% off at Neiman Marcus.

Cheryl Maday
Cheryl Shops
I don’t think the sales will be as quick and as steeply discounted as fall, since the retailers have had a few months to tailor their buys and their stock levels to the current economic climate–the retailers are much better prepared this season.

That said, no one is shopping at the moment, except during Friends & Family and other such events that the stores have been using to test the waters. (And I don’t blame them–once you’ve shopped at 80% off, it’s hard to go back to full price.) I have a feeling we’ll be seeing events like this for another few weeks, and once Mother’s Day comes and goes, the stores will go to 40% off. It’s just a matter of who marks down first; since they have nothing to lose (i.e. their vendors are already ticked off because of last fall). My money is on Saks.