Sales Forecasting Spring 2009, Part 2

April 30, 2009 by Lila Delilah

Yesterday we asked a few of our blogging peers to forecast how the spring 2009 sales season is going to break. Looking back into our archives, we thought we would list last year’s action.
Carolina Herrera: May 17, 50% off
Christian Louboutin: June 1, 40% off
Chloe, June 2, 50% off
Dior: Presale May 13, official sale May 17, 40% off
Gucci: Presale May 20, official sale June 3rd, 30% off
Gucci.com, Presale May 28, official sale June 2, 30%
Jil Sander: May 27, 40% off
Jimmy Choo: Presale May 27, official sale June 1, 30% off
Luca Luca, May 22, 20-50% off
Prada: Presale May 18, official sale June 1, 50% off
Michael Kors: May 20, 50% off
Missoni: May 19, 30% off
Nordstrom: May 15, 40% off
Sigerson Morrison: May 26, 30% off

Last year, by mid-May, the department stores were all discounting pretty nicely. Here’s the breakdown:
Bloomingdales: May 22, 40% off with coupons for an extra 20%.
Bergdorf: F5 was 30% off and the rest of the store went down to 30% on May 29
Barneys: May 22, 40% off
Neiman Marcus: May 6th, 30% off
Saks: May 26, 30% off

Lila’s Take: I expect the sales to start the second week of May, which is a bit earlier than last year. I think many stores will go straight to 40% but others will try 30% and push to 40% and 50% if merchandise isn’t moving.

We are also hearing that presales are going to run a bit differently this season. in many boutiques, customers are going to be invited to take their merchandise home during the presale period. Usually presale items cannot be picked up or sent until the sale offically begins.

My crystal ball says that Saks will go straight to 40% but not blow merchandise out at 70% unless the store remains dead.

Keep a watchful eye on Barneys. They are experiencing a bit of a cash crunch and may discount fast and furious to pay for the fall collection.

In the end, the luxury brands get ticked off if their merchandise gets reduced too much too quickly, but maybe they should remember that without these stores there’s no outlet for their brands.

What do you think?

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